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A space of our own, in SF [minifest]

Thoughts on running an office & community space in San Francisco

4 spectrums of spaces

  1. Coworking (FAR Labs)
  2. Office (Constellation)
  3. Events (Lighthaven)
  4. Community (SF Commons)

For fun: https://manifold.markets/Austin/bay-area-community-spaces-index-bas

Why SF?

  • AI labs are there; tech startups are there
  • People don't want to go across the bridge
  • The SF EA scene is surprisingly weak, compared to London or NYC
  • I live in SF!

Who is “us”?

hard to articulate… “I know it when I see it”

  • "Manifest crowd"
  • EA, AI safety folks, rationalists
  • Early stage startups (tech, AI, YC)
  • Individual researchers, remote workers
  • Random cool projects

Vision

Striking the right balance between:

  • “open, welcoming” vs “high caliber”
    • case study: Manifest vs EAG.
    • Maybe: open weekly events, but long-term tenancy is highly gated
    • I default to “very open”, so will be an interesting exercise
  • “productive/closed door” vs “enjoyable/open door”
    • Solaris was thoughtful about this: quiet zone, no talking open office; all food in kitchen
    • fail state of coworking: enjoyable convos but don’t get stuff done
  • “pluralistic” vs “focused”
    • In Berkeley the EA/AIS/rationalists dominate; in SF they are a part of the entire scene
    • have space for multiple overlapping communities
    • let people learn from each other, make new friends
  • “collectivist” vs “top-down”
    • Inspirations: Manifest, our group house
    • Manifest works because really cool people lead sub-sections
    • Permit individual spirit to shine; avoid commoditization

The space we're looking at

  • Solaris AI was operating on 3rd & 4th floor
  • 2 floors, 10k sq ft each; $17k/mo rent
  • pros: relatively budget, turnkey, close to things
  • cons: immediate location is bad

Currently: have sent out a LOI

Running the numbers

ballpark from Solaris for Sep 2024, at ~90% utilization:

hot desk
$400
80
$32k
private desk
$600
20
$12k
5p office
$4000
7
$28k
larger offices
$5k-$7k
6
$36k
total revenue
$108k

Costs: ~$100k per month

  • $34k rent
  • $30k ~2 FTE salaries
  • $16k utilities (electric, internet)
  • $5k cleaning
  • $3k snacks
  • $10-15k misc
  • So, coworking is a terrible business…
    • Getting to breakeven/net profitable is okay
    • and then it’s hard to scale
    • succeeding startups outgrow you
  • Opportunity cost is the most expensive piece
    • E.g. ballparking my own time at ~$1m/year

Why do a space, when so many have failed?

(RIP Solaris, Lightcone Offices, Berkeley REACH, buildspace)

  • similar to “why do Manifest”:
    • something like this should exist
    • good for meeting folks, branding
    • idk seems like a fun challenge
  • a space enables longterm community
  • weird equity swap plans
    • plug & play tech center

Get involved

Things I need help with:

  1. Someone to co-lead this
  2. Intros to people to work out of here, or run events
  3. Funding or investment — $200k seed

Or: argue me out of it!