Biggest questions with Manifold

  • Are prediction markets actually valuable?
  • Are decision markets actually valuable?
    • Manifold Plays Wordle didn’t seem that awesome
      • Though: bulk-create was a lot better
        • What are the next two 10x improvements on reducing time?
    • Chess?
    • For futarchy to be tested you need a futarchic agent; something that obeys the decisions of futarchy
      • Would be best as an entirely single-player game where you can try and profit from futarchy?
        • Trade against bots
      • Lets you test different designs faster
        • Different choices of metric
        • Random selection of markets rather than deterministic
    • Reading from Vitalik: https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/08/21/introduction-futarchy/
  • How hard is crypto?
  • What emergent properties happen to markets at scale?
    • E.g. fraud, regulation, etc
    • Actually: maybe don’t worry about this until we’ve scaled
      • Except insofar as these scare our users and prevent us from scaling