• Are prediction markets actually valuable?
• Are decision markets actually valuable?
• Manifold Plays Wordle didn’t seem that awesome
• Though: bulk-create was a lot better
• What are the next two 10x improvements on reducing time?
• Chess?
• For futarchy to be tested you need a futarchic agent; something that obeys the decisions of futarchy
• Would be best as an entirely single-player game where you can try and profit from futarchy?
• Trade against bots
• Lets you test different designs faster
• Different choices of metric
• Random selection of markets rather than deterministic
• Reading from Vitalik: https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/08/21/introduction-futarchy/
• How hard is crypto?
• What emergent properties happen to markets at scale?
• E.g. fraud, regulation, etc
• Actually: maybe don’t worry about this until we’ve scaled
• Except insofar as these scare our users and prevent us from scaling