Problems with forecasting

  • Do good forecasters produce better results?
    • Startups?
    • Research?
    • Why isn’t the world ruled by forecasters?
  • Is forecasting accuracy a goodheart-ish measure?
    • Doing well in a prediction tournament doesn’t produce the same properties of “being good at leadership” or “being good at navigating the world”
    • In the same way that “being good at competitive MTG” doesn’t translate to “being good at game design”
  • Experts vs “superforecasters” feels kind of overblown