• Do good forecasters produce better results?
• Startups?
• Research?
• Why isn’t the world ruled by forecasters?
• Is forecasting accuracy a goodheart-ish measure?
• Doing well in a prediction tournament doesn’t produce the same properties of “being good at leadership” or “being good at navigating the world”
• In the same way that “being good at competitive MTG” doesn’t translate to “being good at game design”
• Experts vs “superforecasters” feels kind of overblown