- Do good forecasters produce better results?
- Startups?
- Research?
- Why isn’t the world ruled by forecasters?
- Is forecasting accuracy a goodheart-ish measure?
- Doing well in a prediction tournament doesn’t produce the same properties of “being good at leadership” or “being good at navigating the world”
- In the same way that “being good at competitive MTG” doesn’t translate to “being good at game design”
- Experts vs “superforecasters” feels kind of overblown