- Note: new features don’t bring back users. interesting markets might?
- TODO: validate through link-tracking on Substack
- Daily/weekly recurring markets:
- S&P 500; bitcoin prices
- Our World in Data: population
- Covid counts, deaths
- Manifold metrics:
- DAU; code commits
- Piggyback on Metaforecast?
- Exotic: Bring up Metaforecast results in search; “phantom” markets that get instantiated when you try and bet on them
- Or actually: Just create all the markets on Metaforecast with Metaforecast bot, keep them in sync
- Theory: Doubling our daily markets will double our comments
- Tuesday: catch up, hiring plan, close out funding
- Discuss: how does working with devs work?
- Who is managing?
- Managers: should have weekly 1:1, be point of contact for onboarding, understand their needs
- Better to have single head of dev team, than e.g. 3 reports to 3 people?
- Unless we’re moving away from direct work ourselves.
- Time to carve out roles
- Async: create projects to spec out our timeline
- Wednesday: Retro for March, planning for rest of April
- Start with OKRs:
- 10% WoW growth; 40% by end of month
- = average 140 DAU by end of week
- Retention: to 50%
- Bringing back old users
- Sign on 2 devs
- Land Charity Prediction Markets
- Snowball Fund
- Ping everyone, closing in x days
Check in with Cynthia
check in with funders:
Write up job descriptions
Send to Clay & Andrew
- Behavior = Motivation x Ability x Trigger
- Motivation: Think advertisements.
- Seek hope/avoid fear
- seek pleasure/avoid pain
- seek acceptance/avoid rejection
- Ability: make things easy to use. Nobody reads anything.
- Ability > motivation
- Share to twitter - make one for Metaforecast
- Infinite scroll on Pinterest
- User’s mental heuristics:
- Scarcity: subjects valued scarce cookies more than plentiful ones
- Current example: scarce M$ on Manifold
- New example: scarce daily trophy? scarce leaderboards? scarce daily free market? scarce timing (market is closing now!)? scarce opportunity (bet here while the odds are good; you bet up here, want to double down?)
- Artificial scarcity (M$) vs real scarcity (attention, prizes)
- Bad example: loans decreased M$ scarcity
- Current example: giving 1000 M$ = M$ are this plentiful
- New example: framing your scores vs other people’s scores?
- Frame Manifold value prop vs Twitter, Reddit
- Twitter derives value from lots of good tweeters
- Reddit derives value from large community, people competing to find and upvote interesting things to share with each other
- Manifold: competing to highlight good questions, post good responses, correct bad probabilities
- Manifold: spend your downtime on figuring out the future
- Frame twitter disagreement vs Manifold voting
- TODO find better examples
- Social proof as framing: Showcasing great markets or examples of when markets have helped
- Reducing psychological barrier: framing of “trade” vs “bet”
- Though: “bet” is much easier to grok than “trade”
- “invest”? “Buy higher”?
- How to frame upvote/downvote symbol to indicate a commitment
- Manifold dollars could have a specific color? Instead of just a symbol
- Context: video games - how is gold represented? see Storybook, mihoyo screenshots
- Golden? Dark orange?
- Proof of your contribution, your action “did something”
- Moved the market, stored in
- “Market mover” achievement: largest % change in market?
- Current example: showing possible returns with DPM
- New example: highlighting favored EA charities (ala Momentum?)
- Current example: Manifold leaderboards, kinda
- New example: market creation badges; reputation scores; number of followers; money donated to charity via trading; comment upvotes; number of markets created
- Oh, endowed progress: adding artificial punches. Linkedin profile strength
Chapter 4: Reward
- Before reading, thoughts:
- Should include achievements (Smartest Money, top trader, proven correct) in email
- At least identify profitable trades as good! C.f. Anthony’s feedback, check how much of it we’ve accomplished