Paradigm The Cartoon Guide to Perps - Paradigm
Perp swaps are exchange-specific contracts, where a long and a short can agree to swap interests at a specific price. If the underlying index diverges from the trading price (usually “mark price”), the system transfers money at a high interest rate.
- Traders put down margin
- Perps enable high eg 100x leverage
Q: How would this work for things that trade less often than BTC — eg private company valuations?
Q: How would this work for numbers that only go up, eg video view counts?
Could have a perp swap on growth rates?
Opportunity markets are private markets where a “sponsor” provides liquidity for markets, eg “Will X speak at Manifest?”; but the prices are private. Traders submit bids, and eg after 2 weeks, the sponsor reveals and settles.
Q: What is the auction mechanism? Limit order that an AMM trades against?
What happens when someone bids $1000 at 10%, and another bids $1000 at 11% after?
Q: Why do the prices need to be private?
Oh: so that the sponsor gets first chance to use the info. So more useful in very competitive environments. (”Will event X happen at Mox or Lighthaven?”)
You could have specific financial universes conditional on an outcome, like Trump!$ and Harris!$
Paradigm Quantum Markets — (unclear how this differs from multiverse, or conditional market tokens. seems kind of obvious? though makes a natural extension to AI agent traders)
Orbital extends the liquidity concentration from Uniswap v3 to sets of more than 2 stablecoins
Paradigm pm-AMM: A Uniform AMM for Prediction Markets - Paradigm
A design for an AMM for prediction markets. Complicated math.
Other thoughts:
- Is there a generalized solidity/eth contract simulator? seems good for testing mechanisms
- Also, having a visualization seems quite important
- Manifold research prizes for things like, open source:
- LLM-driven oracle
- Accounts that hold balance
- Comment ranking system
- Agent-trading systems (cf Quantum Markets)
- Metadao parameters for launching a project
- “designing systems for agents”
- once upon a time, the agents were humans (eg for Airbnb/Uber)
- someday, will be llm-powered
- why is claude code single-player?
