Calculators to show the value of different microunits, ala microcovid


From https://forecasting.substack.com/p/2022-01:

Create a microcovid (a) or foodimpacts (a) but for other areas, like micro-marriages, micro-insights, micro-dooms, etc. Do this in a way that easily allows the creation of many of these calculators.

Microcovid: 1/1,000,000 chance of catching covid


Micromarriage: 1/1,000,000 chance of getting married

Micromort: 1/1,000,000 risk of death from common activities (driving, eating bad food) and positive micromorts from exercise

Microjob: 1/1,000,000 risk of employment

Microharvard: 1/1,000,000 chance of getting accepted by an elite institution

Microcarbon: carbon emissions

Micromurder: chance of accidentally causing someone else’s death

Microdepression/Microsuicide: Things that hurt your own mental health

Microcruelty: Amount of harm done by eating meat



  • Set a price on a marriage/mortality and figure out what different actions are worth in dollar amounts