- Prove out prediction markets in a low-stakes, real-world setting
- Highlight high-quality contributions from commenters
- Incentivize the audience to play a more active role in curation and spam detection
- Prototype a standalone comment moderation system (similar to Disqus)
- Every user who signs up is granted 100 karma
- Instead of just upvoting/downvoting, users wager karma on the quality of a comment
- Allowing for larger sizing
- Q: What are users betting on?
- Ideally: "comment quality"
- Q: How are markets settled? Aka how is "comment quality" assessed?
- A moderator role provides a source of truth
- Spam/banned comments pays out to those who bet against
- "Comment of the week" pays out to those who bet for them
- Moderators would not be allowed to bet on markets
- How do you deal with vote brigading? Ideally, you prove identity somehow:
- The more "real" a profile is, the more karma is granted. E.g. supplying a verified email + phone number + email rewards 300 karma
- Or: an actual buy-in cost of some kind (link to a LessWrong profile with 100 karma, etc) is necessary for trading
- Or: a paid ACX membership!
- Comments market may have low liquidity to start:
- Consider an Automated Market Maker-style prediction market, rather than an Centralized Order Book-style one
- Top-level posts themselves can be predicted on as well?
- Maybe predicting "# of views for this article", or "amount of press for this article"
- Would quadratic voting for comments work better than a prediction market?
- Further extension: Quadratic voting for other ACX contests (book reviews, grants)
- Incentivizing bettors: Adding an overlay (e.g. ante in poker)
Inspirations & Research
- Duncan Sabien bemoaning karma/comment quality mismatch on LessWrong
- Gnosis Protocol on automated market making in prediction markets
- Q: How could you integrate this directly into Substack?
- Provide a Chrome extension?
- Provide a hosted, mirrored copy of the ACX site?
- Work with Substack's team to inject an iframe?
- Guess: Probably not? Karma is already extrinsic motivation for posting on forums, today, and people continue to post anyways