Winning culture
- if “rationality is systemitized winning”, “where are all the successful rationalists?”
- what cultures have won?
Winning in games
- Games are a dojo, practice ground for decisionmaking
- Short feedback loops, learn about whether your choices are good
- Esp single-player games (Slay the Spire)
Winning and orienting to competition
- On a very micro level, you might focus on winning vs competitors
- Manifold vs Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus
- Manifest vs EAG, RPI
- Mox vs Lighthaven, Constellation
- But make sure you’re competing at the right level
- E.g. maybe it should be “prediction markets vs the world”, increasing the fraction of prediction markets being used and referenced
- Manifest is explicitly about winning on this level, increasing the fame and notoriety of prediction markets
- I often said “if Polymarket is doing well, so is Manifold”
- Competition is good!
- Competition powers capitalism and free markets
- Competition sometimes evokes bro-y muscled men butting heads at high speed
- It is good to learn from competitors! Read what they’ve done, how they think about their work, think about whether you should adopt similar things
- “great artists steal”
- very happy that Polymarket copied Manifold’s positions tab
- Good to be friends with your “competitors”